Environmental groups chalked up bigger increases than any other causes, according to the Atlas for Giving. (Photo by Cristina Mittermeier/LCP/Conservation International)

Giving in 2013 is expected to rise only 1.6 percent from last year, according to a new report, making it one of the worst fundraising years in five decades, projects the Atlas for Giving, an independent forecasting service.

Among the reasons for the gloom: The stock market is likely to tumble, the unemployment rate will remain stubbornly high, health-insurance costs will surge, and the 2-percent payroll-tax increase that took effect in 2013 will make people stingier, the Atlas’s analysis believe.

“The less people take home, the less they have to give,” says Rob Mitchell, chief executive of Atlas of Giving.

The forecast doesn’t take into account the still-looming threat that Congress could limit or abolish breaks donors get for charity gifts, which would have a “devastating impact” on charities, he adds. “That could make 2013 worse.”

This is in stark contrast to 2012, when the Atlas says giving rose 6.7 percent.

Atlas of Giving is one of the newest players in producing philanthropy research.  It seeks to provide faster forecasts than “Giving USA,” which produces one of the most widely used measures of how much is donated annually.

Atlas’s projections are not based on surveys of nonprofits but on an algorithm that involves 70 measures, such as the state of the economy, demographic data, joblessness rates, political election results, and the state of consumer confidence. It says that when it tested its algorithm to estimate giving each year going back to 1968, it was 99.5 percent accurate compared with what happened in each of those years.

Environmental Giving

Much of last year’s rosy picture resulted from strong stock-market performance, an improved economy, and large contributions from Warren Buffett, Mark Zuckerberg, and other rich people, the Atlas report says.

Environmental charities fared the best last year, increasing donations by 10.9 percent. Other groups with the strongest growth were those focused on education and human services, which rose 8.8 percent. Superstorm Sandy was a key reason that giving to social services rose so fast, says the report.

Also strong was a category that includes donor-advised funds and a range of other charitable causes, where saw giving grow 9 percent.

Mr. Mitchell says he believes that environmental charities benefited from sophisticated fundraising appeals focused on college-educated donors and all the attention climate change got in the news media. Meanwhile, colleges and other education groups did well because they court many donors who probably fared well in the buoyant stock market.

Giving to religious causes in 2012 didn’t grow as much as other segments of the nonprofit world, with only a 4.2 percent bump, according to the study.

In 2013, Atlas expects giving to rise by 5.9 percent for environmental groups, 4.9 percent for human services, and 2.6 percent for education.

The complete report is free but requires registration.

Send an e-mail to Raymund Flandez.

To raise money, a suicide-prevention charity tries to make people happier.

What can you do when donors don’t give because your charity works on painful, unpleasant, or controversial issues?

One solution is to change people’s perception of the work you do. Samaritans, a Boston charity that helps prevent suicide, took that approach and is already attracting more corporate aid as a result.

Instead of talking about death and the depression associated with suicide, Samaritans is focusing on the opposite—life and happiness—in a publicity campaign called Happier Boston.

The idea came from Hill Holliday, an advertising company that donated its services to come up with the campaign. The goal: changing people’s view of the charity and thus improving its ability to recruit corporate donors.

Instead of print ads or radio spots, the campaign features people who reach out to strangers in subway stations, city streets, and other public spaces with gestures designed to bring a smile to their face and encourage acts of kindness. For example, some volunteers have handed out oranges bearing stickers that say, “Peel stress away” or “Orange you happy,” while others hold up signs with messages like “Have a great day!”

The campaign also features HappierBoston.org, a site where visitors can post photos and thoughts about places and things in Boston that make them happy.

At first, says Roberta Hurtig, the charity’s executive director, Samaritans was concerned about the campaign appearing to make light of a serious and painful issue. But, she says, she and her colleagues ultimately realized “this is really a better way of saying what we do. We make our community better and happier and touch people in a profound way.”

The campaign, Ms. Hurtig says, also “underscores how important it is to be present for someone when they are troubled.” The goal, she says, is for people to “react with enthusiasm to an issue normally characterized by isolation and shame.”

Judging from its response so far, the campaign is a big hit after getting under way in earnest last month.  The Boston Globe and other news outlets have written about the campaign, and it has also drawn three new corporate donors, each one giving $1,000 or more.

That may not seem like a lot of money, but Ms. Hurtig says it’s significant for her small, local organization, which has an annual budget of $1.4-million.

And she’s cautiously optimistic of a bigger increase in corporate support just around the corner. As part of the campaign, the president of Hill Holliday, who also chairs the local Chamber of Commerce, is sending a letter next week to more than 900 corporations in the area to encourage them give to Samaritans.

Read The Chronicle’s article about how other charities attract money to work on controversial or tough issues that turn many donors off.

Send an e-mail to Holly Hall.

Giving Day, held in October, was the brainchild of CloEve Demmer, director of Columbia’s annual fund. Ms. Demmer says she got the idea from a daylong online drive in Minnesota called Give to the Max day, which started in 2009.

The university recruited 14 alumni volunteers to train as leaders and assigned them to work with specific schools to help promote the contest.

The volunteers and Columbia staff member drummed up interest by asking people to start giving early to show their support for Giving Day and get some buzz about the event started in alumni and donor circles. By the time Giving Day officially started, it had raised $1-million and recruited about 100 volunteers.

They sent out e-mails, made phone calls, and reached out to alumni on social-media sites such as Facebook and Twitter to publicize the daylong campaign. They also encouraged donors to visit the contest’s Web site, where university officials posted videos and real-time updates about fundraising returns.

University board members also got into the game, providing $400,000 in donations to match contributions made on Giving Day.

Schools got a percentage of that matching money based on how much their donors contributed, with additional incentives for the schools that attracted the biggest share of alumni to give and those with the largest number of international donors.

It’s not yet clear whether Columbia, which is midway into its fiscal year, will lift its annual-fund result for 2013 because of the competition, but Ms. Demmer says Giving Day has already proven its value on one important measure: recruiting new donors. About 23 percent of the people who gave to the contest were first-time donors to Columbia. Another 17 percent were people who had not given in a long time.

“In all of our direct marketing,” Ms. Demmer says. “this kind of acquisition and reactivation success is unprecedented.”

Dig deeper: Read a Chronicle article about how to create giving days.

Send an e-mail to Holly Hall.

The amount donors contributed online fell by 1 percent, and the number of gifts declined by nearly 3 percent compared with the last week of 2011.

But overall results for the quarter are still impressive, largely because appeals in October and November produced strong returns, according to Network for Good, which has been providing data on charities it helps garner online gifts.

The total contributed in the last quarter through Network for Good grew 38 percent, while the number of online gifts rose 36 percent compared with the same time in 2011.

November was an especially strong month for giving, the Network for Good figures show, as donors responded to appeals to help victims of Hurricane Sandy and to support #Giving Tuesday, an effort to spark giving right after Thanksgiving.

Network for Good officials say they think the November rise in giving might suggest that many donors gave early this year—and were tapped out by the time December came. In each of the last three weeks of December 2012, giving was slower than in the previous year.

The overall growth rate for the quarter is a good sign for 2012 giving totals, they note, but until charities assess their overall donations, it’s still hard to see if it’s just a sign donors are writing fewer checks and instead giving online.

We want to know how your charity fared in overall giving. Please take our five-minute survey to share your results with your peers.

See our interactive graphic to track year-end online giving by day.

The number of gifts fell 12 percent last week, following a decline of 6 percent in the second week of December.

Still, the total dollar value of online gifts dropped by less than 1 percent last week because the average online gift rose to $149.21, up from $131.92 in the same week of 2011.

Those figures, based on donations to 8,700 charities that accept donations through the nonprofit group Network for Good, come after a promising start to the giving season last month and in initial days of December. The increases were triggered in part by the number of appeals for Superstorm Sandy and #GivingTuesday, an effort to increase charitable giving after Thanksgiving.

The lackluster fundraising returns in online giving this month seem to mirror the sluggish pace of holiday sales, which retailers say may be the worst since 2008.

But fundraising experts caution not to take too much from online-giving patterns because those gifts are a small percentage of what many charities raise.

What’s more, not all donations are suffering. Many donors are making large contributions this year because of fears that Congress won’t come to a deal on the fiscal cliff, allowing taxes to rise, and concerns that legislators could limit write-offs for charitable deductions next year.

Tell us what you’re seeing in the total value of donations your charity is raising in the last crucial days of the fundraising season.

See our interactive graphic to track year-end online giving by day.

While few nonprofits expect to raise much through the apps, they hope the tools will serve them well in the future by appealing to younger, smartphone-savvy donors.

Here’s how three nonprofits are using apps:

Hunger Relief International struck a partnership with GetCharitable to raise money though an Android app. After people download the app, an image pops up daily on the background wallpaper of  their phones. Advertisers donate to the charity based on how many people have the app running on their phones. Hunger Relief International receives 10 cents each day from everyone who has the app running.

Since the launch a few weeks ago, more than 100 people have downloaded the app. Its goal is to attract 1,000 people by the end of January, and as more people sign up, GetCharitable plans to increase the share of advertiser proceeds given to the charity by 20 cents per day per user by the end of 2013.

St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital asked corporate supporters of its annual holiday appeal to include a donation pitch on the apps they offer consumers. Domino’s Pizza and GNC are urging customers to donate to St. Jude by adding $1 or $5 to their purchases. St. Jude estimates that 5 percent of Domino’s Pizza’s donation this year will come from the mobile app.

Environmental Media Association and Carter’s Kids are benefiting from a new app created by the company Fun Is the Answer. Called “Sweater-ize for a Cause,” the app makes it easy for people to upload pictures of their friends or themselves and manipulate the images so they appear to wear ugly holiday sweaters.

Anybody can donate to the two nonprofits by using the app, which takes them through the Razoo fundraising platform. The charities enlisted celebrities to promote the app, including the singer Lance Bass, the actress Amy Smart, and Carter Oosterhouse, an HGTV host. Fundraising goal altogether: $100,000.

Does your charity have a creative fundraising campaign going on this season? Tell us about it in the comments below.

Send an e-mail to Raymund Flandez.

Nearly 60 percent of the 71 groups said that they expect 2012 donations to exceed what they raised in 2011.

Only about a quarter forecast a decrease, while another 16 percent expect contributions to be about the same this year as in 2011.

In a significant sign of progress, comparing 2012 with 2007, before the recession started, half the charities said they expect to surpass what they raised in 2007, 20 percent said giving will be about the same, and 30 percent predicted it will be less.

More than 100 of the groups said Superstorm Sandy has had no effect on year-end contributions.

Charities also provided some perspective on year-end online gifts. Weekly data provided to The Chronicle shows that average online gifts to 8,700 charities this month are higher than they were last year at the same time, but such donations still make up a tiny share of all contributions.  More than 80 percent of charities in the Chronicle survey said that online donations make up 15 percent or less of all year-end gifts.

Anthony Allen and Bryan Hall of the Baltimore Ravens autographed items for the “5 Weeks of Giving” kick-off event held by Volunteers of America Chesapeake.

Thirty-five days of nonstop outreach online are helping one charity raise money at year’s end.

Volunteers of America Chesapeake’s “5 Weeks of Giving” campaign aims to do something new for its supporters each day. For instance, on “Text Tuesday” it urges donors to donate $10 by sending a text message.

Other themed days include:

* “Motivation Monday,” when the charity features an inspirational quote on its Web site and social networks.

* “Wednesday’s Word,” when the charity spotlights on its site one of its values (caring, respect, faith, quality, and trust).

* “Thank You Thursday,” to highlight one big donor on social-media networks and e-mails.

* “Fun Friday,” a time to offer details on ways to help the charity, such as hosting drives to collect books for needy people or volunteering to serve a meal at one of the nonprofit’s homeless shelters.

On Saturdays, the Volunteers of America affiliate checks in with the charity’s supporters on Facebook and Twitter, often promoting conversation about programs or events where people can volunteer or donate.

On Sunday mornings, the charity posts inspirational tweets and Facebook messages from the affiliate’s chaplain.

In addition to promoting giving and volunteering on Twitter and Facebook, the charity is chronicling all of the efforts during the five weeks of giving at its blog.

So far the campaign is on track to perform well, the charity says. The effort ends January 6 with a goal of raising $100,000; it is already 25 percent of the way there.

Send an e-mail to Raymund Flandez.

The United Way of Western Connecticut, which has created the biggest fund thus far, is now assembling people in Newtown to decide where the money should go.

Isabel Almeida, executive vice president of United Way, said her organization wants to be clear that it was just collecting the money, not setting priorities for distributing the money. “I live in Newtown and want to make sure we are benefiting the community directly. This is very raw and very emotional for us, which is why it’s important the community assesses what their short-term and long-term needs are in moving forward.”

On Friday, Brian Mauriello, a longtime Newtown resident who is vice president for sales at Kinsley Power Systems, established the Newtown Memorial Fund, which has raised over $40,000 in online contributions since its Web site debuted on Sunday. Mr. Mauriello estimates that the fund receives $2,000 every hour in online contributions.

Mr. Mauriello said that the original intention of the fund had been to cover the funeral expenses of those who died in the Sandy Hook shooting, but other donors stepped up to do that, so the fund shifted gears, expanding its focus to provide financial support to needy families of the victims.

In addition, the fund aims to offset unexpected expenses for the town—including compensation for police officers and continued support for teachers, students, and community members affected by the tragedy.

“There has been a tremendous outpouring of support,” said Mr. Mauriello. “In light of the horribleness, it renews your faith in the human condition and in people you’ve never met.”

Mr. Mauriello said he is determined to make sure donors have trust in his fund. “We’re logging each check as it comes in, recording the name of the donor and the amount of money given, including if they requested their money be used in a specific way. We will acknowledge all donors with a letter thanking them for their contribution and we plan to make our first large disbursement in the next two weeks.”

After dealing with the immediate needs in Newtown, the fund plans to finance indoor and outdoor memorials in honor of the victims who died at Sandy Hook and to create an annual scholarship fund.

“With the fund, we want to establish a legacy, and because this tragedy happened at a school, what’s more appropriate than a scholarship? In a couple of months, other organizations will go back to fundraising for other disasters, but we want to work toward something with a multigenerational span,” Mr. Mauriello said.

Last week, the average online gift made through Network for Good was $122.55, up from $113.57 for the same week in 2011.  The average gift size rose by a similar percentage in the previous week.

The gain could be a sign that concerns about the economy are starting to ease, says Katya Andresen, chief operating officer for the giving site. However, she noted that a growing number of companies are using Network for Good to run employee-giving drives, making year-to-year comparisons tricky.

And signs of a slowdown in the number of gifts last week could be worrisome. In the first week of December, the number of donations made through Network for Good grew by 7 percent, but last week they fell by 6 percent.

One reason for more numerous gifts earlier in the month is that many charities participated in #Giving Tuesday, an effort to draw donations just after Thanksgiving. Some fundraisers worry that the day may have simply shifted when people made contributions, rather than prompting more people to give.

December is a crucial month for online giving, as many charities attract their largest gifts then. Blackbaud, the fundraising software company, found that the average gift was $180.04 in December of last year, more than double the average $82.53 given in January. (The company has not released figures yet for this month.)

See our interactive graphic to track year-end online giving by day.

How the Size of Average Online Donations Is Growing

Source: Network for Good

Emily Gipple contributed to this report. Send an e-mail to Holly Hall.