Many nonprofit groups have been anticipating a surge in donations since the landmark prediction by Boston College researchers that showed at least $41-trillion — including $6-trillion in charitable bequests — will change hands when members of the World War II and baby-boom generations die.
What they didn’t anticipate was the fact that the transfer would probably take decades.
The truth, says one prominent planned-giving expert, is that the number of bequests has dropped because of a sharp downturn in the death rate.
“There will always be some level of wealth transfer every year as people pass on. However, we are not seeing any significant increase in bequest revenue overall and have not seen much of an increase since 1999,” said John W. Jensen, a senior vice president at the Sharpe Group, a fund-raising consulting firm in Arlington, Va.
“The number of deaths in 2003 was lower than in 2002 and the number of deaths in 2004 was lower than in 2003. The Census Bureau reports that the 50,000 decline in deaths between 2003 and 2004 was the sharpest decline in 70 years. While we don’t see this continuing in a major way, neither do we see any significant increases. This statistic is very telling.”
Mr. Jensen offered more information about donor demographics — and some tips on how charities can use this information — during a live online discussion today with Chronicle readers. For more background on the wealth transfer, see this article from the archives of The Chronicle of Philanthropy.
